Date:
June 2003
Will She Run or Not?
In
releasing its report last week on the downgrade
of the long-term currency ratings for the
Philippines, Fitch researchers commented on
the need for a fundamental restructuring of
the tax regime in the Philippines to reverse
the declining revenue to GDP trend. One significant
factor in their downgrade of the long-term
outlook was the uncertainty for the post May
2004 period caused by the decision of President
Macapagal-Arroyo not to seek re-election.
This, said Fitch, had injected a new measure
of uncertainty into the fiscal landscape and
has robbed the Philippines of a unique opportunity
for policy continuity. In observing the domestic
political landscape, the agency commented
that the current presidential field was wide-open
to a list of "barely differentiated" presidential
hopefuls with the likelihood of only a weak
mandate and a shallow commitment to improvements
in governance and reform.
These are strong words but reflect accurately
what has been said on the Makati cocktail
circuit for some time now.
For the moment, President Arroyo is maintaining
her position that she will not run in the
2004 election although clearly the pressure
is mounting. Some of this for sure is being
stage-managed by those around her but equally,
the pressure is driven up by the lack of any
credible alternative candidates who would
stay the reformist course.
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