Date: May 2003

The Toughening of the President

President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's popularity seems at last to be on the rebound. As she prepared this past week for her state visit to the United States and her meetings with President George W. Bush, she has appeared at pains to show decisive leadership especially on the issue of "law and order" and in particular with regard to the confrontation with the MILF and other terrorist cells in Mindanao.

Early in the week and in response to the latest bombing in Koronadel City - which has been blamed on the MILF but denied by the leadership, she delivered an ultimatum that gave the Muslim Group until June 1 to comply or be labeled as a terrorist organization. The trouble is that her demands were so severe that there is little likelihood of compliance leaving the terrorist tag the ineluctable conclusion. The conditions set by the government include:

• The surrender to the government of those involved in the recent bombings and attacks in Mindanao;
  
  

• A commitment to refrain from targeting civilians and better policing by the MILF of its own members;
  
  

• A dissociation of the MILF from known terrorist organizations such as the Abu Sayyaf and the Pentagon gang; and
  
  

• A clarification of its position with regard to the suspended peace negotiations.
  

It was the military assault two weeks ago on Siacon town that was the straw that broke the back of government patience. As a result of that attack in which more than 20 civilians were killed and more than 40 wounded peace talks were called off and the chief negotiator for the government side, Presidential Assistant for Mindanao, Jesus Dureza, resigned his position from the peace panel. He remains in charge of Mindanao affairs within the presidential office. No replacement for him in the peace process has yet been named.

While the government has called off direct peace negotiations for the time being, it has not closed the door entirely on peace efforts. The visit last week by members of the Organization of Islamic States suggested that the OIS - and specifically, Malaysia and Libya, may yet play a central role in bringing the two sides back to the negotiating table. There have also been hints that the OIS may even be amenable to a role for the United States in the peace mediation process. For their part the OIS members have firmly backed the Philippines government and had the MILF been expecting any sympathy from this Islamic group, it was left disappointed.

President Arroyo left for America on Saturday 17 May. Just prior to her departure she issued fresh orders to the military command in Mindanao to step up its level of confrontation against the rebel forces and to conduct "selective aerial and artillery attacks" against embedded terrorist cells in the area. Over the past weekend, a series of airs strikes and artillery barrages have been mounted against known MILF lairs in selected areas of the Zamboanga peninsula, Lanao del Norte, in Maguindanao and in North Cotabato. At least 80 rebels have been reported killed in these attacks.

While government and community leaders clearly want to support the president in her stance, many nevertheless are worried that without dialog, peace for Mindanao may be more elusive than ever.

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