Date: May 2003

Elections Next Year? Maybe - but Maybe Not

With attention becoming focused on the Senate and its committee deliberations on constitutional change, a number of groups have come out and questioned the wisdom of tinkering with the constitution at this stage.

Last week, the powerful El Shaddai, charismatic Catholic group and the Iglesia Ni Kristo, came out in joint opposition to current moves to amend the constitution saying that the time was inappropriate. Few people disagree with the proposition that the present constitution needs amending. The debate has focused rather on how these changes are to be made and the timing.

While politicians appear intent on charter change (cha-cha) as quickly as possible, the community as a whole appears to endorse the view that now is not the time. Commentators point out that any move to amend the constitution in the approach to the 2004 election would be perceived by the people as an attempt to advance personal political interests ahead of the well being of the nation. The present political and economic conditions in the country have been described as "fragile."

The House has already approved a resolution calling for the convening of a constituent assembly and the Senate is due to vote on the matter this coming week. Politicians differ over whether to convene a constitutional convention (generally favored by a majority of senators) or have the joint houses of Congress sit as a Constituent Assembly (favored by the Lower House).

If Congress eventually adopts the Constituent Assembly model, it may well derail the presidential election of 2004 as all incumbent politicians would have their terms extended - including provincial and lower level chiefs.

Ping Lacson has already declared himself a presidential candidate for the opposition while former education secretary Raul Roco is generally favored by those groups who support the government. Roco however, has not yet announced his candidacy although he is known to be interested in the job. A nationwide survey conducted by Pulse Asia from March 9 to April 12 shows broadcaster and first-time senator Noli de Castro as front-runner in next year's presidential race ahead of former Education Secretary, Raul Roco. Statistically however the two are in a dead tie because of the small sampling.

The poll result has however prompted a number of commentators and analysts to opine on the local tendency to cast their vote for celebrities ahead of people with experience and proven track record in governance.

 

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