Date:
May 2003
ADB Remains Optimistic on Asian Economies
The
Asian Development Bank (ADB) has sounded a
note of optimism over the prospects of growth
in Asia for 2003 and 2004 amidst a pale of
gloom prevailing over Hong Kong, Singapore,
China and other countries heavily affected
by the recent outbreak of the severe acute
respiratory syndrome (SARS).
While the bank has lowered its earlier growth
forecasts for Asia, its' revised "Asian
Development Outlook" (ADO) for 2003 remains
cautiously optimistic. For example, the Bank
believes that the economy of Hong Kong will
post a 2 percent growth this year and a 4
percent expansion next year despite the SARS
scare.
For the whole of developing Asia, which is
composed of 41 economies, the ADB predicted
a growth overall of 5.3 percent this year
and 5.9 percent next year. The region posted
a growth of 5.7 percent in 2002 and 4.1 percent
in 2001. In particular, the combined economies
of East Asia are expected to grow by 5.6 percent
in 2003 and by 6.2 percent in 2004 after growing
6.5 percent in 2002 and 4.4 percent in 2001.
The economies of Southeast Asia are expected
to expand 4 percent in 2003 and 4.8 percent
in 2004 after expanding 4.1 percent in 2002
and 1.7 percent in 2001.
The
economies of South Asia are expected to grow
by 5.7 percent in 2003 and by 6.1 percent
in 2004 after growing 4.2 percent in 2002
and 5 percent in 2001. The economies of Central
Asia are expected to expand by 5.8 percent
in 2003 and by 5.8 percent in 2004 after expanding
7.7 percent in 2002 and 10.9 percent in 2001.
The
ADB also predicted that the growth of the
Asian economies would continue to outpace
that of the industrial economies. For example,
the US economy is expected to grow
by only 2.4 percent in 2003 and by 3.6 percent
in 2004 after actually expanding by 2.4 percent
in 2002 and by 0.3 percent in 2001.
The Japanese economy is expected to
grow by only 0.7 percent in 2003 and by 1.6
percent in 2004 after posting a growth of
0.3 percent in 2002 and 0.4 percent in 2001.
Europe is expected to post an average growth
of 1.4 percent in 2003 and 2.7 percent in
2004 after posting a growth of 0.8 percent
in 2002 and 1.4 percent in 2001.
China,
home to over 1.2 billion people, is expected
to carry the bulk of growth among Asian countries
in 2002 and 2003. After posting an impressive
8 percent growth in 2002 and 7.3 percent in
2001, the Chinese economy is expected to expand
by 7.3 percent in 2003 and 7.6 percent in
2004.
The ADB revised its growth forecast for the
Philippine economy upward from the
original 3.8 percent to 4 percent in 2003.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP)
is expected to expand by 4.5 percent in 2004.
It posted an actual growth of 4.6 percent
2003 and 3.2 percent in 2001.
The official government growth forecasts are
4.2 to 5.2 percent in 2003 and 4.9 to 5.8
percent in 2004. However, the government is
now considering revision of its growth targets
following the entry of SARS cases into the
country.
For 2003, the ADB predicted that India would
post a 6 percent growth; Thailand, 5 percent;
Malaysia, 4.3 percent; South Korea, 4 percent;
Taiwan, 3.7 percent; Indonesia, 3.4 percent;
and Singapore, 2.3 percent.
In explaining its still optimistic outlook
for developing Asia, the ADB said the region's
strong domestic demand, improving export performance;
supportive policy environment and prudent
fiscal and monetary policies would continue
to drive economic growth in Asia and the Pacific.
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